Token unlocks: measure the newly transferable supply

Vesting arrangements can release assets according to configured schedules. This analysis workflow distinguishes the ability to transfer tokens from actual transfers and market sales. Those stages matter because an unlock headline often compresses them into one claim.

Identify the mechanism Record the relevant contracts, beneficiaries, schedule and modification powers. Establish whether a calendar describes actual onchain restrictions or a public commitment. A spreadsheet can describe an intention without enforcing it.

Reconcile balances and movements Measure the amount that becomes transferable and compare it with the relevant circulating supply definition. Follow subsequent transactions, but do not label an exchange deposit as a completed sale without additional evidence. The deposit may support a risk assessment while leaving execution unconfirmed.

Explain the market context Consider concentration, liquidity and the recipient's observed behaviour. Do not translate an unlock amount mechanically into a price forecast. The useful output is a traceable account of who can move how much, when that changes and what the record shows afterwards. A dramatic dollar valuation adds little if the underlying supply definition is wrong.