Comprendre les blockchains
Bitcoin halvings: a programmed subsidy reduction
The schedule changes new issuance; it does not program a market return.
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The rule in the client
Bitcoin's block subsidy started at 50 BTC and halves every 210,000 blocks. The sequence is 50, 25, 12.5, 6.25 and 3.125 BTC, with the last of those steps reached at block 840,000 in 2024. Transaction fees are separate from the subsidy and are also available to the miner of a valid block.
The schedule is measured in block height, not calendar anniversaries. Dates are consequences of how long producing the blocks takes. A projected future halving date is therefore an estimate even when its target height is known.
Supply is only one side of a price
A lower subsidy reduces the number of newly issued coins per block. It does not determine demand, leverage, existing-holder sales, liquidity or market expectations. Historical price performance around earlier halvings cannot turn that supply rule into a guaranteed trading outcome.
The security-budget question is different again: miners compare revenue from subsidy and fees with their costs. Mining and settlement explains the network role, while survivorship bias helps assess charts that select only favourable windows around a recurring event.