The OKX account of 10/10: questions about the explanation

While many are applauding because a large account is finally speaking up, I am absolutely skeptical about this explanation for several factual reasons!

It is Star from OKX who is presenting a "very clean and logically" sounding explanation. And that is exactly why it appears so convincing to many.

But from a technical perspective, he is only describing the market’s vulnerability before the crash.

I am simply wired to look at the mechanics.

The description of USDe, the 12% APY campaign, and the leverage loops is plausible as a source of systemic fragility. It explains why the market may have been highly leveraged and vulnerable to a shock.

What it does not explain is the price behavior that was actually observed on October 10.

Many trading pairs printed extreme lows primarily on Binance that were not mirrored to the same extent on other major exchanges at the same time. If the root cause had been purely the USDe leverage spiral and a general market unwind, prices should have collapsed in a similar way across venues.

They did not.

This suggests that while USDe and aggressive collateral treatment may explain why the market was fragile, they do not explain why liquidation prices appear to have been driven by conditions specific to one venue.

It also does not address Binance’s own admissions of a collateral transfer degradation during the peak window, index methodology issues for USDe, WBETH, and BNSOL, and the matching of legacy orders that produced near zero wicks.

These are exchange specific technical factors that directly influence how liquidations are triggered and priced.

So the USDe leverage loop may explain why there was a large pool of leveraged positions ready to unwind. It does not, on its own, explain the exchange specific price dislocations and liquidation mechanics that were observed during the event.

That is why I remain skeptical that this explanation tells the whole story.

And honestly, I do not even like talking about this anymore. It has become exhausting and thankless work. The same accounts are now praising each other for pointing out things I was already raising months ago.

I think it is understandable that I am starting to feel fed up with it.

At the moment, it is not even enjoyable for me to share new insights or posts, which I then see repeated weeks or months later by others. Yes, I am crying in the casino, and that is my right.

Maybe I should ask Binance for a sponsorship so at least it would be financially worth it. 🙂